Capture the Flagg: Who will be in the race to the bottom of the standings with the Utah Jazz?

There’s no doubt that the 2024 NBA draft lacked excitement. There was no real top-tier talent that stood out above the rest, especially when compared to the excitement of the 2023 class that was headlined by Victor Wembanyama.
But have no fear, the 2025 class promises to be one of the most exciting in recent years and the bottom-feeding teams around the league are drooling over the possibility of landing Cooper Flagg, a freshman at Duke this season who is expected to go No. 1 overall in the 2025 NBA draft and just signed a lucrative deal with New Balance on Monday.
The Utah Jazz are one of the teams that will be looking to rack up losses to give the team the most favorable lottery odds possible, but who else will be with them in a race to the bottom of the standings? That’s what we’re here to discuss today.
First, a reminder: The 14 teams that miss the playoffs (seven from each conference) are the teams that are in the lottery. The three teams with the worst regular-season record have the best chance (14%) at the No. 1 pick. The team with the fourth-worst record has a 12.5% chance and the odds continue to decrease as the records get better.
The top four picks are selected via lottery drawing and then picks five through 14 are determined by inverse regular-season record, so the team that has the worst record in the league is guaranteed a top-five pick.
Now let’s get into who will be fighting for those spots.
As mentioned above, the Jazz are going to be a losing team this season. They owe the Oklahoma City Thunder a pick, but it’s top-10 protected, just as it was last season, and they certainly don’t want that to convey. But it’s more than just wanting a top-10 pick. They want to be in the running for one of the top picks, and would be overjoyed with the No. 1 overall pick.
The front office has already done some roster massaging by loading up the team with seven players under 21 years old, but they will likely need to do more than that to ensure the Jazz lose a lot of games. Whether that’s through trades, rest or being overly cautious with injuries, the Jazz are going to need to take advantage of every route they can this year in order to keep Lauri Markkanen and Co. from winning too many games.
In the Western Conference, it’s not as easy to figure out who is going to be missing the playoffs as it is in the Eastern Conference, but the team that the Jazz will be competing with the most when it comes to reaching the bottom of the standings is the Trail Blazers. The Jazz will have their work cut out for them if they want to lose more games than Portland in the 2024-25 season.
The Blazers had the worst record in the West last year, winning just 21 games. But even that record was only good enough to tie for the third worst record in the league, which earned them fourth best odds in the lottery (after tiebreakers were settled) and then they were awarded the No. 7 overall pick.
In the Eastern Conference, it’s a lot easier to see the pack of teams that the Jazz will be contending with and the Nets are making a very obvious push to be one of the teams at the bottom. They traded away their best player (Mikal Bridges) and have done a number of deals this offseason that scream “lottery bound!”
The only problem for Brooklyn is that there are a number of teams in the East who are going to be thinking the exact same thing.
To be frank, it seems that even if the Wizards wanted to be good this year (or any year) that they wouldn’t be able to. Even after adding veterans like Malcolm Brogdon and Jonas Valanciunas, the consensus is that the Wizards are too bad to even think about being good. They’ll probably look to trade Kyle Kuzma at some point this season, once they’ve realized that there’s no point in trying.
The Charlotte Hornets, Detroit Pistons, Toronto Raptors and Chicago Bulls are all going to be in the mix at the bottom of the standings, but aren’t likely to be able to fall as low at the Nets and Wizards. But, you can pretty much bank on these four teams duking it out for losses with the Nets and Wizards as the season progresses.
In the West, things aren’t as predictable. Are the Spurs going to take a lead with Chris Paul and Harrison Barnes flanking Wembanyama? Or, are they going to try to pair Flagg and Wembanyama and create a monster team?
The Grizzlies were one of the losingest teams in the West last year, but they are expected to shoot back up into contention with the return of Ja Morant. The Rockets don’t seem like they’re going to try to lose games, but as the season shakes out they could end up in the mix at the bottom.
There is probably going to be a team in the West that’s not expected to be basement-dwelling that ends up pushing for Flagg. For a dark horse candidate, keep your eye on the New Orleans Pelicans and the Golden State Warriors, who could end up making deals or shutting players down in order to make the best of a season that will probably not go well.